Top positive review
Five star book. Must read if you make decisions in uncertain and unpredictable situations.
6 December 2015
This is undoubtedly one of the most important book I have read in the recent times. This book will have a lasting impact on any one who is involved in decision making in unpredictable world. If you regularly deal with uncertainty and chance while making critical decision then this book will be invaluable to you.
The book is on the topic of how do you correctly assign the probability on the events that are very uncertain. Some examples given in the book - Will they find traces of polonium poisoning in the exhumed body of Yasar Arafat. Or Will there be another terrorist attack in Europe in the next quarter. Who will win the election. You get the idea...of a kind of uncertainty we are dealing with all these outcomes. The book articulates in great detail the methodology used by few superforecasters, the ordinary folks, to arrive at correct probability of such very uncertain events. These people were all part of Good Judgement project initiated by author and his wife and funded by NIA or something. It ran for 4 years and these superforecasters beat CIA analysts (who had real time field intel) by 30% or so. They used internet, google alerts, Baysian probability etc tools to gather and process the data to arrive at their prediction. Many of these superforecaster have background in computer science, Math, technology and engineering. But the methods can be applied by any graduates. They are not beyond the capabilities of any graduate. It just calls for very structured analytical analysis of data and not basing your decisions on just an intuition.
The book also tells us that a team of superforecasters is even more accurate than single superforecaster...provided they freely share the data with each other, independently research and process the data, share their opinion without fear and overall treat each other with respect.
The decision making methodology and concept posited in this book has serious practical implications for certain groups of people like for example....stock investors, top executives, business development managers, opinion makers, forecasters etc.
The book is written by author with help from Gardner who is a reporter and professional writer. The book is greatly enhanced by this partnership. The book is very easy and interesting read due to Gardner's contribution.
I have no hesitation in recommending this splendid book to all who deal with uncertainty in their professional life. Five star Book.