Top positive review
Engaging book; shows why noise is accentuated and signal suppressed
4 January 2019
I have just started and am in the middle of the second chapter. Nate is quite engaging in his description and with very current examples helps understand why the loud media accentuates the noise while the signal is often suppressed. Nate explains quite well the difference between precision and accuracy, which is often confused to prove that one's model is good!
I find it quite helpful when Nate describes his interactions with Philip Tetlock to drive the idea of being a fox (adaptable, self-critical and cautious "gatherers") when it comes to predictions and how the hedgehogs (loud & bold "expert hunters") predict no better than a coin toss. The basic idea of Bayesian approach (updating the probability based on evidence) is the key and I hope to grasp it more.