![Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder [Paperback] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas](https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81MS6HSVdsL._AC_UL160_SR160,160_.jpg)
![The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable [Paperback] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas](https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81IebQqqWtL._AC_UL160_SR160,160_.jpg)
![Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life [Paperback] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas](https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71cIFCAb6LL._AC_UL160_SR160,160_.jpg)
Nassim is an intellectual with original ideas, but a bad communicator, so it's not worth your time to wade through the 90% rambling to get to the 10% insight. Which is ironic, because Nassim criticises people who appear on TV as being good at communication but wrong in what they're communicating. He's right, one the opposite is no good either, because there are thousands of other books we could be reading to learn things, and this book is a poor ROI. Nassim should have cut out 90% of the pages, and I'd then rate it 5 stars.
In another instance, Nassim criticises an interviewer for pointing out to an expert that his ideas if followed would have caused a loss. Nassim doesn't explain why this objection is invalid.
On the plus side, there are some interesting ideas here:
- We're good at understanding even bets, where there's a 50% chance in your favor, not skewed bets, where the chance is more on one side.
- A 20% chance of making 1 crore is not the same as a 10% chance of making 2 crores, though both have the same expected value of 20 lac. Expected value is not the only factor in analysing bets.
- The human mind is poor at understanding probabilistic thinking, because it's counter-intuitive.
- When Nassim was asked on one instance whether he thinks the market will go up or down, he said that it's likely to go up but he bet that it went down. Why? Because if it goes up, it goes up only a little, but if it goes down, it's expected to go down a lot, so the expected value is negative.
- The more often you check your portfolio, the more likely you'll find dips, which will make you feel bad. A negative event isn't counter-balanced by a positive event — it requires roughly two positive events to counter-balance it. So Nassim, aware of his own irrational mind, checks his portfolio rarely. And so should we.
- Randomness plays a big part in outcomes, and most people take credit for good luck but blame bad luck on things beyond their control. Plus there's so much ego involved.
- A family earning half a million dollars a year and staying in fashionable Park Avenue in New York, where they're the poorest in their apartment building, will be happier if they move to a middle-class area, where people will look up to, not down at, them.
- A person who repeatedly takes bets and is proven right for a decade can still be wrong, and gives us the example of a trader who was right for two decades, and then went bankrupt. If you bet that rare things won't happen, it may take a decade or two for luck to catch up with you.
- Everyone assumes rare things won't happen, while Nassim bets that they will. Nassim loses money every day for years, and finally earns a lot to make up for all the losses, though it's emotionally draining to see money go out every day. Nassim knows his worst-case scenario, while others don't.
- Wall St banks have bad incentives and will never behave properly. Bad behavior is ignored as long as it produces a profit.
- "Stochastic" means a process consisting of a sequence of random events. Not one event.
- Monte Carlo techniques are computer programs that simulate thousands of scenarios, all random, and give you a conclusion like: 20% of the time, you go bankrupt. 30% of the time, you make a million dollars. The rest of the time, you earn a modest return of 10-20% on your investment. This is a much better way of analysing things than a single number, like: what is the probability that this investment technique produces a 15% profit?
- Monte Carlo techniques are the only option when the equations to model things are too complex. Monte Carlo is brute force, and works.
- Survivorship bias means that the average fund manager has a high return because the rest are out of business. If you count them, the average return is low.
- Nassim is an intellectual and prefers thinking to working.
Download the free Kindle app and start reading Kindle books instantly on your smartphone, tablet or computer – no Kindle device required. Learn more
Read instantly on your browser with Kindle for Web.
Using your mobile phone camera, scan the code below and download the Kindle app.
Flip to back Flip to front
Follow the Author
Something went wrong. Please try your request again later.
| Price | New from |
|
Kindle Edition
"Please retry" | — |
|
Audible Audiobook, Unabridged
"Please retry" |
₹0.00
| Free with your Audible trial | |
|
Hardcover
"Please retry" | ₹1,123.00 |
|
Paperback
"Please retry" | ₹419.00 | ₹389.00 |
|
Audio CD, Audiobook, Unabridged
"Please retry" | ₹2,500.00 |
Free Delivery
The product is eligible for Free delivery on your first order in this category. Learn more
What is Pay on Delivery (Cash/Card)?
Pay on Delivery (Cash/Card) payment method includes Cash on Delivery (COD) as well as Debit card / Credit card / Net banking payments at your doorstep.
Amazon Delivered
Amazon directly manages delivery for this product. Order delivery tracking to your doorstep is available.
There is a newer edition of this item:
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
₹2,500.00
(3,519)
Only 1 left in stock.
₹2,500.00
(3,519)
Only 1 left in stock.
Frequently bought together
- +
![Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder [Paperback] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas](https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81MS6HSVdsL._AC_UL116_SR116,116_.jpg)
- +
![The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable [Paperback] Taleb, Nassim Nicholas](https://images-eu.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81IebQqqWtL._AC_UL116_SR116,116_.jpg)
Total price:
To see our price, add these items to your cart.
Choose items to buy together.
Customers who viewed this item also viewed
Page 1 of 1 Start overPage 1 of 1
From the Publisher
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
About the author
Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations.
It is one of the best books ever written on market probabilities and randomness with respect to good strategy and risk management. Read the book and cut your emotions out of your positions and learn to take the market as a probability.
Images in this review
Top reviews from India
There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later.
Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 5 March 2019
Verified Purchase
Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 5 November 2022
Verified Purchase
Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 2 November 2022
Verified Purchase
It is one of the best books ever written on market probabilities and randomness with respect to good strategy and risk management. Read the book and cut your emotions out of your positions and learn to take the market as a probability.
Images in this review
Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 20 May 2022
Verified Purchase
Top reviews from other countries
Joris
Waste of time
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 23 August 2018Verified Purchase
T.T
Ignore the hate as there is value to be gained by reading this.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 1 October 2019Verified Purchase
Dave
Simply Brilliant
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 22 November 2020Verified Purchase
Harald
Dry theory explained through exciting stories.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 16 June 2020Verified Purchase
Dr Dave. H
An interesting book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 14 August 2019Verified Purchase
